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Online and Offline Monitoring

In Indian share market Harshad Mehta and Ketan Parekh Scams have forced Stock Exchanges to be very stringent about their rules and regulations. To protect the interest of Investor, maximum use of technology and minimum interference of human was needed. Through their NEAT and BOLT screen-based trading system NSE and BSE respectively, achieved this to some extent. But apart from this there was a strong need to put an Online as well as Offline Monitoring system to keep track on the activities of Trading Members. Cases of Insider Trading, Share Price Manipulations, Operator-driven scrips have always created risk and posed new challenges in front of SEBI. We will see how these Monitoring systems are used in Risk Management. Online Monitoring NSCCL has put in place an on-line monitoring and surveillance system whereby exposure of the members is monitored on a real-time basis. A system of alerts has been built in so that both member and NSCCL are alerted as per pre-set levels (reaching 70%, 85%, 90%,95%, and 100%) when the members approach their allowable limits. The system enables NSCCL to further check the micro-details of member’s positions, if required and take proactive active action. The on-line surveillance mechanism also generates various alerts/reports on any price/volume movement of securities not in line with past trend/patterns. For this purpose the exchange maintains various databases to generate alerts. Alerts are scrutinized and if necessary taken up for follow up action. Open positions of securities are also analyzed. Besides this, rumors in the print media are tracked and where they are price sensitive, companies are contacted for verification. Replies received are informed to the members and the public. Offline Monitoring Off-line surveillance activity consists of inspections and investigations. As per regulatory requirement, a minimum of 20% of the active trading members are to be inspected every year to verify the level of compliance with various rules, bylaws and regulations of the Exchange. Usually, inspection of more members than the regulatory requirement is undertaken every year. The inspection verifies if investor interests are being compromised in conduct of business by the members. The investigation is based on various alerts, which require further analysis. If further analysis reveals any suspicion of irregular activity which deviates from the past trends/patterns and concentration of trading at NSE at the member level, then a more detailed investigation is undertaken. If the detailed investigation establishes any irregular activity, then disciplinary action is initiated against the member. If the investigation suggests suspicions of possible regular activity across exchanges and/or possible involvement of clients, then the same is informed to SEBI.

Margin

What is Margin? Margin is the difference between the total value of securities held in an investor’s account and the loan amount from a broker. Borrowing on margin is the act of borrowing money to buy securities. The practice includes buying an asset where the buyer pays only a percentage of the asset’s value and borrows the rest from the bank or broker. The broker acts as a lender and the securities in the investor’s account act as collateral. Importance of Margin Margin form a key part of the risk management system. The uncertainty in the movement in the share prices leads to risk which is addressed by margining system of stock markets. Margins ensures that buyers bring money and sellers bring shares to complete their obligations even though the prices have moved down or up. Example of Margin Suppose an Investor purchases 1000 Quantities of ABC Ltd shares at a price Rs 100/- per share on 1st Jan 2019 Then the total Purchase amount = 1 Lac For Margin ( Initial Token Payment ) of 15% Investor have to give 15,000/- to Broker before buying the stocks. For every Buyer there is a Seller. To ensure that Seller gives 100 shares similar margin is levied on him. Imposition of Margin Impact Cost Impact cost shall be calculated on the 15th of each month on a rolling basis considering the order book snapshots f the previous six months. For Group 1, Impact cost less than or equal to 1 For Group 2, Impact cost is more than 1 On the basis of the impact cost so calculated, the scrips shall move from one group to another group from the 1st of the next month. For securities that have been listed for less than 6 months, the trading frequency and the impact cost shall be computed using the entire trading history of the security. For the first month and till the time of monthly review a newly listed security shall be categorized in that group where the market capitalization of the newly listed security exceeds or equals the market capitalization of 80% of the securities in that particular group. Subsequently,  after one month, whenever the next monthly review is carried out, the actual trading frequency and impact cost of the security shall be computed, to determine the liquidity categorization of the security. In case any corporate action results in a change in ISIN, then the securities bearing the new ISIN shall be treated as newly listed security for group categorization. Daily Margin payable by Members Value at Risk Margin Extreme Loss Margin Mark-To-Market Margin Daily margin, comprising of the sum of  VaR Margin, Extreme Loss Margin and Mark-to Margin is payable. VaR Margin Suppose you have Rs. 10 Lac in holding and you want to know how much your portfolio can lose in a ‘single day’? For 5% Value at Risk you will lose Rs12,500 per day. It means a)You are 95% confident that, maximum loses will not exceed Rs.12,500 in single day b) There is a 5% chance that portfolio losses will be minimum 12,500  or more in a single day   The VaR(5%) of Rs.12500 indicates that there will be a 5% chance that on any given day, the portfolio will experience a loss of Rs. 12500 or more. Definition of VaR VaR is the Rupee or Percentage loss in Portfolio value that will be equaled or exceeded only ‘X’ percent of the time. VaR is a single number, which encapsulates whole information about the risk in a portfolio. It measures potential loss from an unlikely adverse event in a normal market environment.  How VaR is calculated? Var is computed using exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) methodology. Based on statistical analysis, 94% weight is given to volatility on ‘T-1’ day and 6% weight is given to ‘T’ day returns. To compute volatility of 1st Jan 2019, first we need to compute day’s return for Jan 1st 2019 by using Ln (close price on Jan 1 2019/Close price on 31st Dec 2018) .Take volatility computed as on 31st Dec 2018. Use the following formula to calculate volatility for 1st Jan 2019    Square root of [0.94*(Dec 31, 2018 volatility)*(Dec 31, 2018 volatility) + 0.06*(Jan 1st 2019 LN return)*(Jan 1st 2019 LN return)] Example – Share of ABC Ltd Volatility on December 31, 2018 = 0.0314 Closing price on December 31, 2018 = Rs. 360 Closing price on January 1, 2019 = Rs. 330 January 1, 2019 volatility = Square root of [(0.94*(0.0314)*(0.0314) + 0.06 (0.08701)* (0.08701)] = 0.037 or 3.7% VaR Margin is a margin intended to cover the largest loss that can be encountered on 99% of the days (99% Value at Risk). For liquid securities, the margin covers one-day losses while for illiquid securities, it covers three-day losses so as to allow the clearing corporation to liquidate the position over three days. This leads to a scaling factor of square root of three for illiquid securities. For liquid securities, the VaR margin are based only on the volatility of the security while for other securities, the volatility of the market index is also used in the computation. VaR margin specified as per groups Liquidity Categorization One-Day VaR Scaling Factor for illiquidity VaR margin Group I Security VaR  1.00 Security VaR Group II  Higher of Security VaR and 3 times Index VaR  1.73 (square root of 3.00) Higher of 1.73 times Security VaR and 5.20 times Index VaR Group III Five Times Index VaR 1.73 (square root of 3.00) 8.66 times Index VaR Extreme Loss Margin The extreme loss margin aims at covering the losses that could occur outside the coverage of  VaR margins. The extreme loss margin for any security shall be higher of: 5% or 1.5 times the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns of the security price in the last six months. How Extreme Loss Margin is computed? The margin rate is fixed at the beginning of every month, by taking the price data on a … Read more