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Diwali 2022 picks by Stocksbaazigar

22nd September 2022 by stocksbaazigar

Today on the 22nd Sept 2022 Indian stock markets reacted to the 75 bps rate hike by Fed. The hawkish commentary of Jerome Powell and his determination to arrest inflation on any cost (by rising rates till 4.6% till 2023 end) has not been taken positively by the markets. US Markets and other foreign markets were down and SGX Nifty gave negative cues in the morning. It was clear that Nifty and Bank Nifty both will open negative but it was interesting to see whether buying will happen or not at the dips? Indian Markets have shown great resilience thanks to Liquidity by FIIs and DIIs. China Plus One helped Indian Markets in last two years. Europe Plus One is helping in this year. Europe is facing high inflation and energy crisis. America is facing Slowdown and some countries are standing on the edge of Recession. Fortunately Indian Markets seems little decoupled by whatever is happening globally. Whether it is inherent strength of Indian Markets or just a bubble waiting to get burst only time will tell. Currently Rupee has depreciated to record levels, inflation is concern, and Stocks are trading at inflated valuations. None of these are affecting sentiments of Indian investors. 16500 has become very strong support level on Nifty. So even if Markets fall from here, we might see good buying opportunity only. Samvat 2079 showed some really interesting stories in India. Stocks which outperformed in the year 2020-21 saw huge profit booking. Tata 1Mg’s disruption and increasing competition in pathology sectors saw heavy decline in stocks like Metropolis, Dr Lal Pathlabs and Thyrocare in this year. Hospital stocks too corrected heavily as Covid-waves were really mind than earlier waves. IT stocks which gained good traction during Work From Home culture of Covid-Times saw 20-30% corrections from their highs. Steel, Aluminum and Mining sector stocks which were roaring high due to increased prices corrected too. Surprisingly rate sensitive stocks like NBFCs and Banks kept Nifty and Bank Nifty managed to higher levels. Auto Numbers were better than last year and Stocks like M & M, Escorts were real winners. Adani Group stocks gave multi-bagger returns to their investors and made Adani second richest person in the world briefly on 17th Sept 2022. Analysts who used to say “Never go short on India” started saying “Adani ko short nahi karneka”. Credit Insights warning about Adani Group’s companies being ‘Deeply overleveraged’ was completely neglected by the Indian Retail Investors. Gautam Adani decided to cancel his plans to de-list Adani Power seeing how much trust retail Investors have in his stocks. In the year 2022, Boycott Bollywood and Cancel culture affected Entertainment and Films Distributions stocks adversely. Aviation stocks saw huge correction due to high Fuel prices and frequent incidents which affected safety of the passengers. Hotel and Amusement Park stocks saw good rise thanks to increasing footfalls. They even raised their Prices which increased their margins. Due to high inflation, investors are hiding in FMCG stocks like ITC, HUL etc. ITC moved faster than Rajdhani Express this year shutting mouth of all the Meme-Makers. Now as the September months is about to end and Navratri and Dusshera is around the corner, we must focus on Festival stocks which can give good returns till Diwali 2022. Diwali is starting from 19th November this year. Stocksbaazigar believes that Defense Sector stocks, Adani Group stocks and Auto Sector stocks which are now highly overvalued might see some profit booking and other sectors which are directly or indirectly linked to Festival season will do good. Sugar sector stocks, Paper Stocks, have given good returns till date due to their high demand and low supply. So I am not mentioning them separately. But yes, Diwali is all about Sweets and Balrampur Chini stock should make your portfolio sweeter. Titan and Kalyan Jewellers might also do good. Tanishq is much aspired and trusted brand in this segment. Hence Titan will be my first choice. Stocks related to Shoes (Bata, Metro, Relaxo) and Clothes (ABFRL, Nykaa, Arvind, Raymonds) etc. can be kept on radar. People do buy lot of things on EMI during Flipkart Big Billion and Amazon Great Indian Festivals. Credit Card companies stocks, Bajaj Finserve and Bajaj Finance stocks etc. can be bought to play this story. Home Appliances made major buying Items during Diwali after Electronics and Clothing. So stocks like Dixon tech, Voltas etc. can be included for two months. In the Beverages, United Spirits can be accumulated. Remember you can hold it till New Year too. Other stocks like Logistics companies which have been corrected can make to your short term portfolio. All Cargo, Snowman logistics seems highly corrected. Diwali can never be completed without lights. Havells, Surya Roshni etc. neglected stocks might surprise you in the coming days. Many people prefer that their new vehicles should reach their homes on Dusshera. But booking of those happens almost 4-6 months ahead. So I don’t think Four-Wheeler can make to my list of Diwali stocks. But I can definity include Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp and TVS in this list. In short, this year Diwali will be much bigger as India has came out of Covid completely. We saw how Ganesh Utsav was celebrated. I am expecting same enthusiasm and same joys in Diwali 2022. People may not be spending much in regular days, but they are spending good on Festivals in 2022 year. So let’s be bullish on Market irrespective of Global cues. We can make good Money till Diwali if we select right stocks and allocate right funds for them. This is just a guiding post. You must do your own research or take advice from your Financial Advisor. Disclaimer: Stocksbaazigar Mr.Deepak Doddamani is not a SEBI registered research analyst. He is NSE’s Certified Investment Analysis Professional, NSE’s Marketing Professional level – 4, AMFI registered Mutual Fund distributor, Authorized Person of IIFL Securities and MBA, B.Tech. He is active in market since 2009.

Circuits in share market

16th February 2019 by stocksbaazigar

Many retail investors buy stocks which have some corporate governance issues just because they are trading at cheaper prices after the heavy selling. But they don’t understand that catching a falling knife is the biggest mistake which they are doing. In such cases, those stocks closes Circuit-to-circuit on consecutive days destroying huge capital of investors. If they are lucky they get a chance to exit the stock after a few days to avoid further losses. I have seen many traders who don’t know what are the circuit levels for some particular security they are trading and end-up placing a Stop loss at such a deep level that they actually incur more losses in SL itself. Therefore, to avoid such things, one should know what the concept of circuit breakers in the Secondary Market. Let’s see what are the index-based market-wide circuit breakers and what are scrip-wise circuit breakers? Index-based Circuit breaker system An Index based market-wide circuit breaker system applies at three stages of the index movement either way at 10%, 15% and 20%. These circuit breakers bring about a coordinated trading halt in trading on all equity and equity derivatives markets across the country. The breakers are triggered by movements in either Nifty 50 or Sensex, whichever is breached earlier. 10% Circuit rules In the case of 10% movement in either of these indices, there would be a one-hour market halt if the movement takes place before 1:00 p.m. In case the movement takes place at or after 1:00 p.m. but before 2:30 p.m. there would be trading halt for ½ hour. In case movement takes place at or after 2:30 p.m. there will be no trading halt at the 10% level and market would continue trading. 15% Circuit Rules In case of a 15% movement of either index, there should be a two-hour halt if the movement takes place before 1 p.m. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 1:00 p.m. but before 2:00 p.m., there should be a one-hour halt. If the 15% trigger is reached on or after 2:00 p.m. the trading should halt for the remainder of the day. 20% Circuit Rules In case of 20% movement of the index, trading should be halted for the remainder of the day. Scrip-wise Price Band Daily Price Bands of 2% (either way) on set of specified securities. Daily price bands of 5% (either way) on a set of specified securities. Daily price bands of 10% (either way) on a set of specified securities). Price bands of 20% (either way) on all the remaining securities (including debentures, warrants, preference shares etc. which are traded on CM segment of NSE) No price bands are applicable on scrip on which derivative products are available or scrips included in indices on which derivative products are available. However, in order to prevent members from entering an order at non-genuine prices in such securities, the Exchange has fixed an operating range of 20% for such securities. The Price bands for the securities in the Limited Physical Market are the same as those applicable for the securities in the Normal Market. For Auction Market the price bands of 20% are applicable The exchange views entries of non-genuine orders with utmost seriousness as this has market-wide repercussion. It may suo-moto cancel the orders in the absence of any immediate confirmation from the members that these orders are genuine or for any other reason as it may deem fit.

Fixed Price Issue and Book Building Issue

20th January 2019 by stocksbaazigar

An Initial Public Offering (IPO) is a common way that a company goes public and sells shares for the first time to raise financing. There are two common types of IPOs: a fixed price and a book building offering. Let us discuss both types in detail in this post. What is meant by Issue Price? The Price at which a company’s shares are offered initially in the primary market is called as the Issue Price. When they begin to be traded, the Market Price may be above or below the issue price. Who decides the price of an issue? SEBI does not play any role in the price fixation. There is no price formula stipulated by SEBI. SEBI has provided guidelines under which Issuer shall decide the Issue price in consultation of Merchant Banker The Company and the merchant banker are required to give full disclosures of the parameters which they had considered while deciding the issue price. What is the Fixed Price Issue? Under the Fixed Price Offering, the company going public determines a fixed price at which its shares are offered to investors. Price at which the securities are offered and would be allotted is made known in advance to the investors. Demand for the securities offered is known only after the disclosure of the issue. To take part in this IPO, the investor must pay the full share price making the application. What is the Book Buiding Issue? Under Book building, the company going public offers a 20% price band within which investors are allowed to bid and the final price is determined by the issuer only after closure of the bidding Demand for the securities offered, and at various prices, is available on a real-time basis on the websites of major stock exchanged during the book building process. Investors must specify the number of shares they want to buy and how much they are willing to pay. Unlike Fixed price, there is no fixed price per share. What is the Book Building Process? Book Building is basically a process used in IPOs for efficient price discovery. It is a mechanism where, during the period for which IPO is open, bids are collected from Investors at various prices, which are above or equal to floor price. The process is directed towards both the institutional as well as retail investors. The issue price is determined after the bid closure based on the demand generated in the process. What is a Price Band in a book built IPO? The prospectus contains either the floor price for the securities or a price band within which the investors can bid. Floor Price is the minimum price at which bids can be made Cap price is the maximum price at which bids can be made The spread between the floor and cap of the price band should not be more than 20% It is up to the company to decide on the price band in consultation with the merchant bankers. The actual discovered issue price can be any price in the price band or any price above the floor price. This issue price is called ‘Cut-off price’. What is the main difference between the Book Building Issue and Fixed Price issue? Price at which securities will be allotted is not known in case of book building offer while in case of offer of shares through fixed price issue the price is known in advance to investors. Under book building, investors bid for shares at the floor price or above and after the closure of the book building process the price is determined for allotment of shares. In case of book building, the demand can be known everyday as the book is being built. But in case of Fixed price issue the demand is known at the closure of the issue.

Wealth Creator Stocks of 2018

29th January 201919th December 2018 by stocksbaazigar

Wealth Creator Stocks of Calendar year 2018 Last Calender year 2017 was really good for the Indian Share Market thanks to GST and other major economic reforms Government took after Economy recovered from the effect of the biggest fiasco of Demonetization in 2016. Analysts predicted that it will be very difficult to earn good returns in the calendar year 2018 and unfortunately their prediction is turning out to be correct. This year many indices gave single digit to negative returns. The market recovered when the tension between the USA and North Korea resolved for some period but it could not sustain at the top thanks to the USA-China trade war. In 2018, we saw Crude oil prices and Rupee mostly affected the sentiments of Investors. From 3rd of Oct, fortunately, things are in favor of Market and Nifty is showing great rally since then. The Assembly Elections Results of 5 states in December are already factored in in the Nifty level and right now we are witnessing a Santa-Rally. Before FIIs book their profits and go for their Christmas vacation, let us discuss how Indian Markets performed in the Calendar year 2018. This year some Bluechip stocks really performed well. Let’s see which Nifty 50 stocks gave really good returns in the Calendar year of 2018 in the following table. This year Private sector banks like Kotak Bank, ICICI Bank and Axis Banks gave good returns to investors. The IL & FS Crisis affected NBFCs and HFCs really badly. Money from these sectors shifted to Private Sector banking stocks. That’s why Nifty Bank index could give 7% returns even in such a bad year. Financial Sector stocks like Bajaj Financial Services (22.39%) and Bajaj Finance (48.90%) too performed really well. The year 2018 was really good for IT sector stocks thanks to depreciation of Rupee for most of the year. Stocks like NIIT Technology (80.88%), MindTree (45.14%) and Tech Mahindra (40.95%) gave tremendous returns. The implementation of GST definitely helped some FMCG stocks which gave double-digit returns to their investors. Dabur (31.90%), UBL (33.58%), Marico (27.31%), Colpal (24.07%), GSKCons (22.63%) etc. stocks helped Nifty FMCG give 17.12% returns in 2018. Thanks to HUL (38.78%) which lead this pack. HUL-GSK deal announcement will definitely take HUL further up at new 52-w High level. Some Pharma sector stocks wiz. DivisLab (44.51%), Glenmark Pharma (26.92%) and Biocon (22.92%) managed to recover the Nifty Pharma index from the year lows. This index gave -4.24% return in last 365 days. NSE Auto Index traded in red for most of the year 2018. It gave 18% negative returns in 2018. Still, stocks like ExideIndustry managed to give 27.31% positive returns thanks to the decrease in raw material prices. US-China Trade war affected Nifty Metal sector really bad in 2018. This index gave -13.65% return in 1 year. Surprisingly JSW Steel (22.19%) made to top 10 performers list of Nifty 50 stock this year. Apart from these stocks, there are many such stocks who created wealth for the Investors. wiz. V-Mart Retail, HEG, Vinati Organics Ltd, L & T Infotech, L & T tech Serve, VIP Industries, Bata, Jubilant Food etc. After the heavy selling of 40-60% in Midcaps and SmallCaps in last year, we can clearly see that Investors prefered to Invest in Large Cap and BlueChip stocks to avoid risk. We saw more buying in highly liquid stocks and front-runners in Market who are always favourites of leading Analysts. Let’s see how these Wealth Creators of Calendar year 2018 performs till 31st March 2019. If you have followed my Facebook Live videos you will realize that I gave positional calls in most of these stocks at very correct levels wiz. HUL @ 1200 Axis Bank @ 460 Kotak Mahindra Bank @ 1050 Jubiliant Foods @ 900 LT @ 1100 and so on. (Disclaimer: Please note, this post is for educational purpose only. Stocksbaazigar does not take any responsibility of profits/losses of the reader. Please consult your financial Advisor before taking any Investment decision. Mr Deepak Doddamani is NSE’s Certified Investment Analysis Professional and NSE’s Certified Marketing Professional Level -4, but he isn’t SEBI registered Financial Advisor.)

I will never ever sell my Yes Bank shares tweets Rana Kapoor

29th January 201928th September 2018 by stocksbaazigar

One-man Army of YES BANK surrenders! Yes Bank Founder and CEO Rana Kapoor tweeted today that he will never ever sell his Yes Bank shares. In back to back 3 tweets today Rana Kapoor expressed his loyalty to Yes Bank after he realized that he won’t get any extension as a CEO and MD of Yes Bank. As directed by RBI he will step down on 31st January 2019. Earlier this Wednesday, Board of Directors of Yes Bank sought an extension of minimum 3 months and maximum one year for their CEO and MD Rana Kapoor. They gave a reason that Audits of Yes Bank needs to be done under his guidance. They also said that Yes Bank hasn’t found their Successor yet and it will take time to decide who will lead the bank. To complete the transition of leadership smoothly they tried to buy some time. But the Central bank didn’t approve it as they already feel that rampant Corporate Governance issues in Yes Bank have already made investors in this bank vulnerable. Reserve Bank of India is on the mission to bring reforms in the banking sector. Mergers of Public Sector banks and taking strict actions on Private Sector banks who didn’t comply with the disclosures of NPAs rule properly are some of the actions RBI is taking to reduce the NPAs in the banking system of India. After Nirav Modi scam Government too is going rough on Leaders who have made some dubious decisions in the past. Yes Bank’s Rana Kapoor too faced the wrath of central bank thanks to the discrepancy in the NPAs stated by Bank. Now it is confirmed that Rana Kapoor will step down on 31st January 2019 and RBI might bring Professional CEO from outside of the Bank to ensure the safety and trust of Investors. Tweets by Rana Kapoor on 28th September 2018 “Diamonds are forever: My Promoter shares of @YESBANK are invaluable to me” “I will eventually bequeath my @YESBANK shares to my 3 daughters and subsequently to their children, with a request in my Will stating not to sell a single share, as Diamonds are forever !” “Even after I demit office s MD and CEO of YES BANK, I will never ever sell my @YESBANK shares” “In this leadership transition at @YESBANK, I continue to remain fully committed to the interests of the Bank and all its Shareholders. I will fully be guided by the Board of Directors of YES BANK and Reserve Bank of India” Rana Kapoor, an Indian Billionaire is the Founder of private sector bank ‘YES BANK’ in India. He founded Yes Bank in 2003 after he received a banking licence from RBI. After 16 yrs of experience in Bank of America and 2 years in ANZ Grindlays, he decided to quit his job and become an Entrepreneur. He stated with NBFC first in 1998 and then Bank in 2003. Yes Bank became one of the largest banks in India in very short time. It gave 28% CAGR return to its investors. In 2017 he became Billionaire thanks to his 26% stake in Yes Bank. Currently, he holds 10%+ stake in Yes Bank and has tweeted that he will never sell his YES BANK Shares in his life.